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AgriSource 4-15-24

Happy Tax Day! The old saying was you spent the first three and a half months of the year working for the government and now you can finally work for yourself. Depending on where you live you may still have a couple of months to go.

The grain markets greeted Tax Day with lower values across the board with May corn closing 4 cents lower and May soybeans closing down double digits at 15 3/4 cents lower for the day. July CBOT wheat closed 3 1/4 cents lower with KC July wheat closing down 6 1/4 cents. The DJIA closed 248 points lower while May crude oil was down $.05 at $85.61. April gold was up$26.80 at $2393/oz. Gold continued to make historical all time highs with the COMEX May contract up $279/oz IN JUST THE LAST MONTH and up $567/oz. since last October.

The market [ ]

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AgriSource 4-12-24

Grains finished the week out on a strong note, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all closing higher. For the day, corn closed up 6 cents, wheat closed up 4 cents in Chicago, and 6 to 8 cents in KC. Soybeans closed up 14 cents on the old crop, and new crop rallied 12 cents. Soybeans were helped by an export announcement of 4.5 mln bushels sold to Unknown for 2023/24.  For the week, corn closed up 1 1/4 cent , soybeans closed 11 cents lower, and wheat rallied 4 cents in Chicago, and 6 cents in KC.

The outside markets had extreme volatility today, thanks to new concerns in the Iran/Israel conflict. Gold spiked over $60 higher to break thru the $2,400 level for the first time ever, but then traded $20 lower, and closed a $1 higher. The nearby gold contract had a $93 an ounce [ ]

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AgriSource 4-11-24

Prices finished lower today in response to today’s USDA report.  Carryouts increased more than expected for soybeans and wheat, and corn carryout didn’t fall as much as the trade expected. 3 for 3, with the Bulls on the wrong side. Corn prices closed near session lows.  May corn settled 5 1/2 cents lower with new crop down 4 cents.   Soybeans finished a nickel lower, with May closing 8 cents off session lows.   Nearby CBOT wheat closed nearly 7 cents lower, KC down 11 and MPLS  fell 15 cents.

The outside markets fared better than yesterday. The government released the PPI and core PPI reports today, with something for everyone.  The Dow traded back and forth, and ultimately finished the day nearly unchanged. Gold had a big day – up nearly $40.  The dollar index was slightly lower, and oil was .60 cents lower.

Today’s report didn’t favor the Bulls, but it wasn’t [ ]

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AgriSource 4/10/24

Another choppy day of trading, with mixed results.  May corn came a penny shy of regaining back all of yesterday’s loss. May corn closed 3 cents higher, with December futures up 2 cents.  Soybeans traded higher overnight, but sizzled during the day session and closed near 4 week lows.  May beans closed 16 cents off session highs, and 9 3/4 cents lower for the day.   The November contract finished the day 9 cents lower, as well.   Wheat prices climbed higher, with KC finishing near the highs of the day.  Nearby CBOT wheat closed 3/4 cents higher, KC up 17 and MPLS settled up 1/4 cent.

The big action of the day occurred in the outside markets.  According to the latest consumer inflation reading, inflation is very much alive. March inflation was pegged at 3.5%, up from February’s 3.2% rate.  A reduction in interest rates will now likely have to wait until [ ]

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AgriSource 4-9-24

Grains closed lower as planting nears, and weakness was seen in the energies. For the day, corn closed 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans dropped 6 to 7 cents, and wheat lost 8 to 10 cents. In the outside markets, crude oil dropped $1.09, gold rallied $16 to another new record high, and the dollar index was steady. The Dow Jones index lost 9 points.

The USDA will be updating the April Supply & Demand report on Thursday April 11th. They will incorporate the March 1 stocks numbers in the report, but the acreage numbers will wait until the May report. Trade estimates are shown below.

Below are the trade estimates for South American crops.  While the trade is looking for lower estimates for both Argentina and Brazilian corn and Brazilan soybeans, the Argy bean crop is expected to increase. Well respected crop scout Dr. Cordonnier is reportedly [ ]

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AgriSource 4-8-24

Happy Eclipse Day! Much of the ECB was able to see the eclipse today with a large swath of Indiana and Ohio being able to experience totality. Speaking as someone who resides in central Indiana it was a remarkable sight.

Perhaps the traders were caught up in eclipse mania, as it was a rather quiet day.  Prices closed mixed with May corn closing 1 1/4 cents higher while May beans closed down 3 1/2 cents. July CBOT wheat closed 1 1/4 cents lower with KC July wheat closing up 5 cents. The DJIA closed down 11.2 points while April crude oil was down $.43 at $86.48. April gold was up $13.4 at $2339/oz.

It was a rather featureless day as the market sought direction in a rather narrow range. Lower soybean oil put light pressure on beans as lower palm oil pulled soy oil a bit lower. Decent corn loadings gave light [ ]

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AgriSource 4-5-24

Grains chopped around today to finish out the week. Wheat rallied 10-11 cents in Chicago and 4 to 6 in KC today, while soybeans closed up 5 cents on old crop and a penny higher on new crop. Corn closed a penny lower on most contracts. For the week, corn lost 7 ¾  cents on old crop and a nickel on new crop, soybeans dropped 6 to 9 cents on old crop, and 1 ½ lower on new crop, and wheat rallied 6 to 9 cents in Chicago and dropped 3 cents in KC. Chinese corn futures rallied 15 cents on corn and 27 cents on soybeans this week.

The outside markets were mostly higher as the Dow Jones index rallied 307 points and crude oil gained 12 cents. The dollar index was up 0.189 points. Gold sailed $34 higher to close at a new record high [ ]

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AgriSource 4-4-24

It was another day of choppy trade, with mixed results.  Corn futures finished higher.  May corn closed 3 1/2 cents higher, settling above the 10 and 40 day Moving Average.  December corn settled a couple cents higher at $4.73. A rally in meal helped beans bounce a dime off session lows.  May soybeans finished the day down 2 cents,  with November prices slipping a penny lower.  Wheat prices were all over the place.  Nearby Chicago closed 1/4 cent higher, KC down 3 cents and MPLS up nearly 7 cents.

Fed Chairman Powell said the Feds will take a wait and see approach regarding interest rates. He also said interest rate cuts are likely.  The timing is key, and some other board members have commented that they don’t see a cut until 4th quarter. But, Wall Street has the jitters regarding a rate cut.  The Dow dropped 530 points today and gold [ ]

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AgriSource 4-3-24

Prices seen two-sided trade to start the day, but finished the session on a positive note.  May corn settled a nickel higher with new crop up 3 cents.  Both May and November soybean futures close 8 cents higher.  Wheat prices rallied in the double digits, as traders lightened up on their short positions due to Russian headlines commenting on export restrictions. Nearby Chicago closed nearly 11 cents higher, KC up 17 and MPLS wheat climbed 12 cents higher.  The Funds bought 20 mln wheat on the day, and 10 mbu each of corn and soybeans.

The Dow fell 43 points today, the third consecutive day of losses.  Meanwhile,  gold traded to an all time high today, and silver and copper aren’t far behind.  Gold was up $37 as of this writing. Oil traded .46 cents higher and over $85/barrel today.

The Biden White House announced that they have cancelled their plan to [ ]

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AgriSource 4-2-24

Grains saw another round of selling as the rally from last weeks USDA report has now vanished. For the day, corn closed 8 to 9 cents lower on old crop, and 7 cents lower on new crop. Soybeans dropped 5 cents on new crop, while old crop futures dropped 11 to 12 cents. Wheat also traded in the red, with Chicago wheat down 11 cents, and KC wheat dropped 12 to 13 cents. The outside markets were mixed today, with the Dow Jones index dropping 396 points, and the dollar index down 0.234. Gold rallied $40 an ounce to a new record high of $2,277, and crude oil rallied $1.63. The 10 year treasury yields rallied to 4.36%, the highest levels since last November, and spooked the stocks today.

Crude oil futures were helped by reports of Ukraine hitting Russian oil refineries. Drone attacks on the 3rd [ ]

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