Mixed action was the feature at the CBOT today. Seems like whenever corn moves lower, beans move higher….and vice versa. December corn made ANOTHER 2-year low at $4.69 1/2 and then closed the day down a nickel. The Nov soybean contract settled up and over the $13 level for just the 2nd time since September. Most buyers are using the January for their cash bids, though. It settled 13 1/4 higher on the day.Wheat futures managed slight gains of 1-3 cents at the three exchanges. Oats continue to suffer a major beat-down. The nearby contract was down 3 cents today closing at $3.76 1/2. Hard to believe, but true……this contract traded as high of $5.22 1/2 in September. It was actually higher than the price of nearby corn for a while!
The DJIA exploded 564 points higher (the best move since June) to settle at 33,839. The equity market liked the Federal Reserve announcing this morning that the Fed funds rate would be unchanged. The U.S. dollar was down .738 points. Yesterday’s high of 106.985 is a level we haven’t see in almost a year. It’s also looking like a double-top on the charts. Could be that the 107 level is resistance now. Nearby crude oil was up $2 and finished the day at $82.46. Unleaded gasoline futures were up 6 cents.
News was very light today, so we’ll make this one a shortie. Corn faltered as more analysts are bumping up their corn yield estimates ahead of next week’s USDA’s Production Report. Soybeans found buyers on mention by a Chinese official that USDA’s estimate of bean imports by China are on the light side.USDA has them pegged at 102 mmt this past crop year and projected at 100 mmt this year. In bln bushels > 100 mmt = 3.673 bln. If they ship same as last year it’s another 74 mln bushels. Wheat found some buyers today on press out of Russian that they may ban HRW wheat exports for 6 months starting Dec 1. It’s probably ridiculous propaganda, but we’ll have to wait them out on this one.
We’re going to dive into weather a bit here, too. Those of you that are done with harvest activity might be surprised to realize what a struggle it’s become to finish corn in the eastern Corn Belt. Here’s some states well behind normal because the corn won’t dry down and/or it’s been too wet in the fields. These progress levels are as of Monday morning: WI 35%, MI 30%, OH 29% and IN 56%.
So, here’s a map of recent rainfall. Green is 100-150% of normal the past 7 days. Purple is 200-400%.
And, here’s a forecast for rainfall the next 7 days. Rain where they DON’T need it and lighter rains where they COULD take it. The NWS 6-10 is showing near-normal rainfall for WI and MI. It’s above-normal for IN and OH. The 8-14 is showing near normal rainfall for all 4 of these states.
Check your mailboxes >>> On or around Nov. 8, FSA expects to begin mailing Emergency Relief Program (ERP) Track 1 application forms for 2022 losses to producers who received federal crop insurance indemnities and to producers who received NAP payments. For Track 2, FSA began accepting applications on Oct. 31. The USDA has set aside $3 billion for the program, and expects 210,000 producers are eligible based on 2022 indemnities.
>OFFICIAL CROP INSURANCE HARVEST PRICES<<
Corn $4.88 (Spring price $5.91)
Soybeans $12.84 (Spring price $13.76)
Are you owed an indemnity? If you had 208 bpa TA-APH for your corn at 80% coverage and yielded 200 bpa you should be paid a claim of $7.40 /ac. Not much in this example, but the point is your trigger yields have moved higher because of the lower fall price. Here’s a soybean example……if you had 60 bpa TA-APH at 80% coverage and yielded 50 bpa you should be paid a claim of $19.48 per acre. Reach out to your agent if you think you’ll be close to a possible claim.
That’s all for now. See you here tomorrow.
