Prices seen two-sided trade to start the day, but finished the session on a positive note. May corn settled a nickel higher with new crop up 3 cents. Both May and November soybean futures close 8 cents higher. Wheat prices rallied in the double digits, as traders lightened up on their short positions due to Russian headlines commenting on export restrictions. Nearby Chicago closed nearly 11 cents higher, KC up 17 and MPLS wheat climbed 12 cents higher. The Funds bought 20 mln wheat on the day, and 10 mbu each of corn and soybeans.
The Dow fell 43 points today, the third consecutive day of losses. Meanwhile, gold traded to an all time high today, and silver and copper aren’t far behind. Gold was up $37 as of this writing. Oil traded .46 cents higher and over $85/barrel today.
The Biden White House announced that they have cancelled their plan to refill the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) because oil is “way too expensive”. The SPR sits at 40 year lows. That may be a problem if global conflicts increase and/or Mother Nature starts acting up. Well, consider this your first warning. Hurricane forecasters are expecting the Atlantic hurricane season to feature well above the historical average number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes this year. A lot of the models are showing an increase in hurricane activity due to the warming cycle of La Nina. The hurricane season begins in June and lasts through November. $85 barrel may look cheap?
Today’s market action was mainly technical in nature. However, there are some analysts fretting that it may be too wet to get an early start to the planting season. The 6-10 day is warm and wet.
But, not to fear…the 8-14 day forecast flipped back to warm and dry conditions for April 11-17.
Rain is welcomed in many areas. As you can see in the map below, there is a big area that is on the dry side. The good news is that the drought area is shrinking. Iowa still has 11% of the state in the extreme drought category but that is down from 35% at the beginning of the year. 
It almost looks and feels like the market needs another catalyst to push traders to cover their short positions. The market is confident that the “lost” acres will be found in the USDA June report. End users have no need to panic, as supplies are plentiful at the moment. In their minds, it would take a wet spring and/or crop issue with the safrinha crop to make them scramble to cover their short positions.
Technicals or seasonals could also move prices higher. The month of April favors the bean bulls, but corn not so much. A black swan event can be a market mover. A government policy announcement could also trigger a move.
The lows seem to be in, but prices have struggled to maintain a rally. Rangebound is not a good place to be in the grain market with high interest rates. May corn has spent a little over a month trading in a 20 cent range.
December corn has also been sandwiched in a 20 cent range. $4.80 acts like a brick wall.
There has been more action on the soybean front, but prices have a hard time holding their heads above $12 for an extended period of time.
The cap of $12 really sticks out with new crop soybeans. It is really important to do some pricing at that level given the possibility of a 400 mbu carryout this year.
Good night.
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