Grains enjoyed a nice rally with double digit gains seen in wheat and soybeans. May corn closed 6 1/4 cents higher while May beans closed 10 1/2 cents higher. July CBOT wheat closed 20 3/4 cents higher with July KC wheat closing 19 1/2 higher. The DJIA closed 253.6 points higher for its best day in two weeks while May crude was down $.29 at $82.85. Gold saw a huge sell-off as April COMEX gold was down $66.9 at $2331.5 -the largest single day drop since December 4 when gold was down $47.60.
Wheat led the grains, as July wheat saw its largest single day rally since July of 2023. Concerns over cold weather damaging HRW ignited the rally as below normal temps were seen over the weekend in KS and other HRW areas. The rally in wheat helped to pull corn and beans higher with corn finding its own support from the largest weekly corn export loadings report this marketing year and the most in a week in nearly two years. Corn is also still finding support from last week’s news of the EPA extending the E15 waiver into the summer months. This will be the third consecutive year that the EPA has issued the E15 summer waiver. The funds were noted buying 20 mil. bu. each of corn and soybean futures while buying 30 mil. CBOT wheat futures.
Corn export inspections came in at a marketing year high 63.9 million bushels vs 53.3 million a week ago. 4.2 million went to China while 24.6 mbu went to Mexico and 5.9 to Japan. YTD loadings are 1195 mbu vs. 881 million a year ago, or a 35.6% increase from a year ago. Weekly loadings need to average 47.7 million to reach USDA projections of 2.100 billion bushels.
Soybean export inspections were 16 million bushels vs 16.4 million a week ago. 8.1 mbu went to China. YTD loadings are 1.414 billion bushels vs 1.729 billion a year ago which is a 18% decline from LY. Weekly loadings need to average 15.1 million to reach USDA projections of 1.700 billion bushels. The USDA lowered soybean export projections 20 mbu in the April S&D report.
The latest NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are both expecting above normal temperatures in the entire corn belt, with above normal rain in both the ECB & WCB in the 6-10 period. The 8-14 shows continued above normal rain in the WCB however, the ECB should see normal precipitation.
Corn planting progress report showed U.S. corn progress at 12% which compares to 6% LW, 12% LY and 10% on average for this date. Illinois showed progress at 11%, IA 13%, IN 2%, MN 8%, MO 47%, NE 6%, SD 6%, with ND & OH still at zero planted. The trade was expecting 7% planted in corn.
The soybean planting progress report today shows U.S. soybean planting at 8% vs. 3% LW, 4% LY and 4% on average for this date. IL leads the major Midwest states at 11% planted, IA at 8%, MN at 5%, NE 2%, IN 2% and MO at 16% planted. OH is still at zero planted to soybeans. Market estimates were at 8%.
U.S. winter wheat conditions were rated 50% good to excellent which is down 5% from LW and compares to just 26% G&E LY at this time. TX is 46% good to excellent, OK 49%, KS 36%, SD 63% and NE 68% G&E. 16% of winter wheat was rated poor to very poor, down from 41% a year ago but, up 3% from LW.
May corn has now rallied 14 1/4 cents in two sessions. Next resistance is at the March 28 high of $4.48 which was made after the planting intentions report release. At today’s high May beans have rallied 35 cents from Friday’s low while July CBOT wheat has rallied 43 ½ cents from Friday’s low to today’s high and to its highest level since February 29. Carryouts are still burdensome but seasonality should help us build some risk premium back into the market which has very little near current levels. Today’s action was positive to the charts when coupled with Friday’s gains.
Good Night.
