Wheat prices continue the trek higher, but corn and soybean prices failed to ride along today. CBOT July wheat finished a dime higher, KC was up nearly 16 cents with MPLS adding 13. May corn closed near session lows, down 5 cents. New corn settled 2 cents lower. May soybeans broke its 3 day winning streak, and finished near the bottom of today’s trading range – 1 1/2 cents lower. November beans closed 1/2 cent higher.
Outside markets were fairly quiet. The Dow posted its first loss in 5 sessions today, down 42 points. Gold prices slid $10 and oil fell $.41 barrel. The dollar was slightly higher at .140 points.
The funds continue to cover their shorts in the wheat market, and it appears they are not done. The combination of political and weather related issues have pushed the Funds to trim their short positions. However, the wheat rally failed to lift corn prices today. Price action was disappointing. May corn climbed to $4.44 1/2 during the session, but then selling kicked in overdrive. Soybean action was choppy, with a lack of a story.
Ethanol production fell 29k bpd. Output came in at 954,000 mbpd, the lowest in 13 weeks. It was the 2nd consecutive week that production failed to hit 1 mbpd. We should start to see ethanol production rise as we are at the bottom of seasonal down times for maintenance. Stocks were lower. All in all, ethanol has been a bright spot in the corn market.
A lot of the focus in the market recently has been on the weather. Wheat has responded to weather threats, but not corn. The map below shows a pretty active rain system for much of the Midwest now through Monday. There has been planting progress in the WCB, but very little in the ECB. That might change if the forecast verifies. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show below normal precip for Illinois and the ECB. The WCB stays wet. All areas will remain warm. Perhaps tonight’s frost warning will be the last for awhile?
Rain is always a concern in April, especially as we head into the last week of the month. But, the map below may be more concerning. The European model has flipped to dry conditions for the month of May for many areas. We hope it is not the start of a dry trend…. Hence one of the reason traders who are short wheat are blowing out of their positions?
Technically, December corn will seek out $4.80 and November soybeans $11.80 on a rally. If prices close above those levels, $4.94 and $11.95 become the next layer of resistance. New crop will pull old crop prices along for the ride. If July corn can top $4.55, the 100 day MA of $4.63 becomes a target. July beans will find resistance at $12 (the high today was $11.91 3/4).
Good Night.
