Mixed action was the feature at the CBOT today. Nearby corn was up 8 at the high, down 8 at the low and then finished 1 1/4 higher. Soybeans saw both sides of steady, too. The September contract finished near the high of the day, though……up 22 3/4 on the close. The USDA reported 16.5 million bushels of flash sales of soybeans this morning. That makes it 7 days in a row for a total of nearly 58 million bushels to China or Unknown (probably China). Wheat futures also traded up, down and all around today. Chicago and Minneapolis futures finished mostly 8-10 cents higher. KC futures ended their session 2-4 higher old crop and 2-3 lower new crop.
The DJIA scored another contract high today (fourth day in a row) at the 35,610.6 level. The index settled just 16 points higher, though. A consumer sentiment survey number reported this morning at THE Lowest level in a decade was a drag on equities. Concerns were surprisingly high about surging Covid variants, inflation and personal finances. Energy prices were slightly lower on the day. The dollar index was down over .500 points late in the session.
The trade is still absorbing the bullish numbers from the USDA yesterday. If you missed Thursday’s commentary you might want to go back and take a quick look at the embedded tables and maps. The state by state corn and soybean yields are quite the range. North Dakota corn at 106 bpa and Illinois at 214 bpa says it all! In the chart below you can see how the 1.242 billion bushels projected carryout next summer shakes out in remaining days supply. We wouldn’t be surprised it falls lower in the coming months…….either by crop size and/or exports better than expected. And, here’s a reminder that nearby corn reached as high as $7.75 in May when the weather looked threatening and China was buying. The days supply for this summer was projected at 31 days back then (27 now). The all-time high was set in 2012 at $8.43 3/4.
Here’s how soybeans look in days supply. The 160 million bushels of projected carryout for this summer and 155 million bushels for next summer shake out to the same very tight 13 days. Drop the crop size and/or increase usage by 30 million bushels and the days supply ties the record at 10 days following the 2012 drought. The record futures high was set that summer at $17.94 3/4. The high this past May was $16.77 1/4.
And, here’s how the wheat looks in days supply. It’s the tightest carryout in eight years. But, 111 days means there is no threat of “running out”. The all-time contract high was set February 2008 at $13.49 1/2. The high the summer of 2012 was $9.47 1/4. The high today at $7.74 3/4 is the new 8 1/2 year high. The 9 mmt drop in world crop production (Russian and Canada) was the bullish surprise yesterday that’s still fueling the wheat market.
At the risk of sounding like a “broken record”…….crop conditions and the weather are still very much factors at work that will determine price direction in the coming weeks. We hear from many of our sources across the Corn Belt and northern Plains states that crops are STILL going backwards in a lot of pockets. We looked at DTN Weather for a 15-day forecast for Sioux Falls, SD and see just 3 days with a chance of rain. They’re calling for .73″ total from now to Aug 27, which is NOT enough! The NWS extended forecasts have been showing warm and wet for the Corn Belt the last few days. Today the 8-14 day outlook goes back to mostly hot and dry for the Corn Belt.
Did you watch the MLB Field of Dreams game last night? Incredible scenery, amazing game and quite the plug for corn! We heard an announcer say the 159 acres of corn surrounding the field was hand-planted (false). They also said a recent windstorm on Tuesday this week leaned over some of the corn near the stadium and two local farmers that farm the ground zip-tied 1,100 rods to stalks to stand it back up (true). It looked like a perfect stand and wow was that corn tall! Made the 6’7” Yankee Aaron Judge look like a shrimp. Here’s hoping this game becomes an annual event.
That’s all for now, have a great weekend!
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