It was a strong day in the soy complex, as July beans closed 33 3/4 cents higher. July soymeal was up $15.40. Corn also got in the act with July corn closing 8 3/4 cents higher and July CBOT wheat closing 26 1/4 cents higher. KC July wheat closed 25 cents higher. New corn futures finished nearly 6 cents higher with new beans up 19 cents. The DJIA closed 176.59 points higher for the fourth straight day. June crude oil was up $.46 at $78.57.
Heavy short covering amid weather concerns both in the U.S. & South America pushed values to 3-month highs in both corn and beans. The funds were noted buying 60 million bushels of beans, 50 million CBOT wheat and 30 mbu of corn. Wet forecasts and slowed planting in the ECB have made for nervous shorts. There is too much rain in southern Brazil which isn’t just slowing harvest, but also damaging crops to the point of loss.
Corn export inspections came in at 50.6 million bushels vs 51.1 million a week ago. 2.8 mbu went to China, 15.9 million went to Mexico and 15 mbu went to Japan. YTD loadings are 1298.5 mbu vs. 979.4 milion a year ago, or a 35.6% increase from a year ago. Weekly loadings need to average 47.1 million to reach USDA projections of 2.100 billion bushels.
Soybean export inspections were 12.8 million bushels vs 10.1 million a week ago. 3.1 mbu went to China. YTD loadings are 1.437.5 billion bushels. vs 1.758.4 billion a year ago. This is an 18% decline from LY. Weekly loadings need to average 15.4 million to reach USDA projections of 1.700 billion bushels.
The latest NWS 6-10 day shows above normal temps in the WCB with mostly normal in the ECB. Precipitation in the 6-10 is expected to be near normal in both the WCB & ECB. The 8-14 shows above normal rain in the the whole corn belt with above normal temps in the WCB & Plains and mostly normal temps in the ECB. The 8-14 day forecast takes us out to May 20.
Corn planting progress report today showed U.S. corn progress at 36% which compares to 27% LW, 42% LY and 39% on average for this date. Iowa showed planting progress at 47%, IL 32%, IN 20%, MN 42%, MO 67%, NE 31%, SD 18%, with ND at 11% & OH at 26% planted in corn. The market was expecting 39% of U.S. corn planted.
The soybean planting progress report today shows U.S. soybean planting at 25% vs. 18% LW, 30% LY and 21% on average for this date. IL is at 31% planted, IA at 30%, MN at 17%, NE 18%, IN & OH at 20% and SD at 10% planted. Market estimates were at 28%.
U.S. winter wheat conditions were rated 50% good to excellent which is up 1% from LW and compares to 29% G&E LY at this time. 16% of winter wheat was rated poor to very poor unchanged from LW.
July beans traded to their highest point since January 25 and at today’s high have rallied $1.05/bu. since April 19. July beans have surged over the 100-day moving average of $12.21 with the 200-day MA of 12.91 now 40 cents away.
July corn traded to its highest level since January 25 as well with July now having rallied nearly 48 cents at today’s high since February 26. The July corn 100 day moving average of $4.69 was breached today which was good technically to the charts. It was especially good to see July corn break out to the upside of this 20-cent range we’ve been stuck in for weeks. In a month, nearly 30% of the corn short has been covered and prices are up 7% versus their 30 day lows.
We will likely come out with a lot of advice this week. The USDA will release the first Supply and Demand tables for new crop, and it won’t be pretty. We need to get a few more sales on the books.
Below is a recap of what we are kicking around… Price targets subject to change.
Old corn; Sell 10%. Get to 65% sold. $4.70-4.90 July
Old beans; Sell 10%. Get to 80% sold. $12.75-12.90 July
New corn; Sell 5-10%. Get to 20% sold. $4.95 December
New beans; Sell 15%. Get to 25% sold. $12.25 November
Old wheat; Sell 15%. Get to 100% sold. $6.50 July
New wheat; Sell 10-15%. Get to 50-55% sold. $6.50 July
Good Night.
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